Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
