Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
